U.S. home prices since 1942, against the rate and inflation backdrop

Nominal home prices almost never fall — but in real terms they fall often, usually when yields are rising and inflation outruns prices. That is the regime we're in now. The strip below places today's reading against every year since 1942.

Now (late Sept 2026)Tick = where today ranks vs. 1942–2025 annual values

Signposts

10-year near 5%

Highest since 2007. The 30-year tracks it, now 7.03% (Freddie Mac, Sept 24), up from ~6.3% a year ago.

Watch: sustained 10Y > 5% puts 7.5% mortgages in play

Fed hiking into an oil shock

First hike since 2023 (to 3.75–4.00%); dots show one more in 2026. Closest precedent is 1979–81, when real home prices fell three straight years without a nominal crash.

Watch: 2027 dots and energy prices

Real prices already falling

National prices +1.1% y/y (May) vs CPI ~3.4%. The 20-city index has fallen in real terms 13 months running.

Watch: nominal y/y turning negative (1990, 2007)

Mortgage spread ~2.0 pts

Above the ~1.7 long-run norm but well off the 2023 peak near 2.9. Only modest relief left from spread compression.

Watch: MBS spreads if the Fed resumes QT pressure

Jobs still holding

Unemployment 4.1%. Every nominal decline in this table (1990, 2007–11) came with rising unemployment forcing sales.

Watch: Sahm-rule trigger (+0.5 pt on 3-mo avg)

Regional split

Midwest and Northeast still rising; Sunbelt and West markets (Tampa, Denver, Las Vegas, Seattle) negative y/y.

Watch: Sunbelt inventory and months' supply

The table

Nominal price decline Real price decline (text) Regime match: real prices ≤ 0 and 10Y rising Recession year (NBER) Italic = estimate / proxy
Year Home pricenominal % CPIinflation % Real homeprice % 30Y mortgageavg % 10Y Treasuryavg % Mtg − 10Yspread, pts Real mortgagemtg − CPI Fed fundsavg % Unemploy­mentavg %

Sources and caveats. Home price column reproduces the HousingWire/Shiller chart (Shiller national index; 2025 per the chart). Other series are annual averages: CPI-U (BLS), 10-year Treasury (Fed H.15; pre-1953 long-term government bond yield), 30-year mortgage (Freddie Mac PMMS from 1971; earlier years are approximate conventional contract rates), fed funds effective rate from 1955 (earlier years show the NY Fed discount rate), unemployment (BLS). 2025 values are approximate. Historical figures were compiled from standard published series and rounded; verify against FRED before using them in anything you publish.

The 2026 row is the latest reading, not an annual average: Case-Shiller national y/y (May), CPI y/y (Aug), Freddie Mac 30Y (Sept 24), 10Y near 5.05%, fed funds midpoint 3.875%, unemployment (Aug).