Soft handoff
10%Oil deal, Warsh pauses then cuts, curve bull-steepens, banks lend into AI capex.
Leads to: Goldilocks (Reflation if AI capex takes off)
GreysmanSnapshot
Greysman Macro Monitor
Automatic sources last checked: Oct 15, 2026, 11:00 PM UTC. Board tally last updated: Oct 15, 2026, 11:00 PM UTC.
Scenario framing last reviewed by a person: Oct 9, 2026. Automated checks do not re-review these scenarios.
Where the signals lean
Pinned, then break leads, with 70% of the tally.
Four paths from here, tallied from available market, policy and economic signals. Tally shares are not probabilities. Stale or missing readings are excluded, not treated as zero. Manual readings stop counting when their configured age limit is exceeded; a source check never resets the observation date.
Included readings: 14 automatic, 0 manual. Excluded: 10 stale, 3 missing.
Four scenario paths
Pinned, then break
70%Markets held up into Nov 3, then a 20–40% drawdown as volatility unpins.
Leads to: Stagflation or Secular Stagnation, depending on oil
Financial Repression
20%Yields capped by policy; inflation runs 4%+ with rates below it. Real assets win.
Leads to: Financial Repression
Dollar squeeze
0%The break arrives with a dollar spike; gold and collateral get hit first.
Leads to: A shock, not a regime: it can precede any of them
0 of 3Fed reversal watch
No reversal tells tripped.
0 of 4Intervention watch
No intervention tells tripped.
Lean over time
| Recorded | Soft handoff | Pinned, then break | Financial Repression | Dollar squeeze |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | 17% | 43% | 39% | 0% |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 20% | 44% | 36% | 0% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 15% | 50% | 35% | 0% |
The public signals
Each reading has its own observation date, source and collection mode. A successful check is not a new observation. Stale and missing readings do not enter the tally; how the signals are tallied stays in-house.
Fed and rates
Fed funds, lower bound
Current3.75 %
Previous: 3.75 % · observed Oct 14, 2026
Automatic · Observed Oct 15, 2026 · Checked Oct 15, 2026, 11:00 PM UTC · Included in tally
Source: FRED: federal funds target range lower limit · Open source URL https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=DFEDTARL&cosd=2024-10-01
2-year Treasury
Current4.82 %
Previous: 4.79 % · observed Oct 13, 2026
Automatic · Observed Oct 14, 2026 · Checked Oct 15, 2026, 11:00 PM UTC · Included in tally
Source: FRED: 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield · Open source URL https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=DGS2&cosd=2024-10-01
10-year Treasury
Current5.19 %
Previous: 5.21 % · observed Oct 13, 2026
Automatic · Observed Oct 14, 2026 · Checked Oct 15, 2026, 11:00 PM UTC · Included in tally
Source: FRED: 10-year Treasury constant maturity yield · Open source URL https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=DGS10&cosd=2024-10-01
10-year real yield (TIPS)
Current2.84 %
Previous: 2.88 % · observed Oct 13, 2026
Automatic · Observed Oct 14, 2026 · Checked Oct 15, 2026, 11:00 PM UTC · Included in tally
Source: FRED: 10-year TIPS constant maturity yield · Open source URL https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=DFII10&cosd=2024-10-01
Curve move (last 2–4 weeks)
StaleBear steepening
Manual · Observed Oct 8, 2026 · Checked Not yet checked · Excluded from tally
Source: Treasury par curve: since Sep 10, 2y +19bp (4.56→4.75) and 10y +27bp (4.95→5.22); 2s10s ~47bp. Front end has eased since Oct 5 while the long end held near highs
Odds of a hike at the next FOMC
Stale18 %
Previous: 22 % · observed Oct 7, 2026
Manual · Observed Oct 8, 2026 · Checked Not yet checked · Excluded from tally
Source: CME FedWatch ~18% hike / ~82% hold for Oct 28 (press report, Oct 8). Prediction markets still lean to a December hike
Warsh's emphasis
StalePrices / financial conditions
Manual · Observed Sep 16, 2026 · Checked Not yet checked · Excluded from tally
Source: Original board manual entry
Plumbing
SOFR minus IORB
Current-2 bp
Previous: -1 bp · observed Oct 13, 2026
Automatic · Observed Oct 14, 2026 · Checked Oct 15, 2026, 11:00 PM UTC · Included in tally
Source: FRED: SOFR minus IORB (basis points) · Open source URL https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=SOFR,IORB
Standing Repo Facility usage
Current0.11 $bn
Previous: 0 $bn · observed Oct 14, 2026
Automatic · Observed Oct 15, 2026 · Checked Oct 15, 2026, 11:00 PM UTC · Included in tally
Source: New York Fed Standing Repo Facility, combined 08:15 and 13:30 ET accepted amounts ($bn) · Open source URL https://markets.newyorkfed.org/api/rp/all/all/results/lastTwoWeeks.json
30-year swap spread
MissingNo reading
Manual · Observed date unavailable · Checked Not yet checked · Excluded from tally
Source: No confirmed source reading
Leveraged-fund Treasury futures shorts
MissingNo reading
Manual · Observed date unavailable · Checked Not yet checked · Excluded from tally
Source: No confirmed source reading
Treasury buybacks
StaleDoubled (current)
Manual · Observed Sep 9, 2026 · Checked Not yet checked · Excluded from tally
Source: Original board manual entry
Bank rules to absorb Treasuries
StaleEnacted
Manual · Observed Apr 1, 2026 · Checked Not yet checked · Excluded from tally
Source: Original board manual entry
Inflation and oil
WTI spot price
Current101.91 $
Previous: 100.86 $ · observed Oct 13, 2026
Automatic · Observed Oct 14, 2026 · Checked Oct 15, 2026, 11:00 PM UTC · Included in tally
Source: EIA WTI Cushing spot price via FRED (not futures settlement) · Open source URL https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=DCOILWTICO&cosd=2024-10-01
Strait of Hormuz deal
StaleTalks collapsed
Previous: Talks active · observed Sep 26, 2026
Manual · Observed Oct 8, 2026 · Checked Not yet checked · Excluded from tally
Source: No formal talks as of Oct 8: Tehran calls negotiations futile, US sets new demands, tanker attacks escalating. Trump said no US strikes on Iran before Nov 3. Strait still closed
Core PCE, y/y
Current3.01 %
Previous: 2.98 % · observed Jul 1, 2026
Automatic · Observed Aug 1, 2026 · Checked Oct 15, 2026, 11:00 PM UTC · Included in tally
Source: FRED: core PCE price index, 12-month change (%) · Open source URL https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=PCEPILFE&cosd=2024-10-01
5-year breakeven
Current2.33 %
Previous: 2.36 % · observed Oct 14, 2026
Automatic · Observed Oct 15, 2026 · Checked Oct 15, 2026, 11:00 PM UTC · Included in tally
Source: FRED: 5-year breakeven inflation rate · Open source URL https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=T5YIE&cosd=2024-10-01
Growth and labor
Payrolls, 12-month average
Current41.33 k
Previous: 45.25 k · observed Aug 1, 2026
Automatic · Observed Sep 1, 2026 · Checked Oct 15, 2026, 11:00 PM UTC · Included in tally
Source: FRED: nonfarm payroll level, 12-month change / 12 (thousands/month) · Open source URL https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=PAYEMS&cosd=2024-10-01
Initial jobless claims
Current199 k
Previous: 198 k · observed Oct 3, 2026
Automatic · Observed Oct 10, 2026 · Checked Oct 15, 2026, 11:00 PM UTC · Included in tally
Source: FRED: initial jobless claims (thousands) · Open source URL https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=ICSA&cosd=2024-10-01
UMich sentiment
Current51.7
Previous: 55.2 · observed Jul 1, 2026
Automatic · Observed Aug 1, 2026 · Checked Oct 15, 2026, 11:00 PM UTC · Included in tally
Source: FRED: University of Michigan consumer sentiment · Open source URL https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=UMCSENT&cosd=2024-10-01
Markets
VIX
Current16.87
Previous: 15.27 · observed Oct 13, 2026
Automatic · Observed Oct 14, 2026 · Checked Oct 15, 2026, 11:00 PM UTC · Included in tally
Source: FRED: CBOE VIX closing value · Open source URL https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=VIXCLS&cosd=2024-10-01
Dollar index (DXY)
Stale102.1
Previous: 102.3 · observed Oct 7, 2026
Manual · Observed Oct 8, 2026 · Checked Not yet checked · Excluded from tally
Source: Approximate late level (~102.1, -0.1%) per market recap; not an official close. Near the Oct 5 high of ~102.5
Gold
Stale4,158 $
Previous: 4,141 $ · observed Oct 7, 2026
Manual · Observed Oct 8, 2026 · Checked Not yet checked · Excluded from tally
Source: Futures close ~$4,158 (+0.4%) per Yahoo Finance; spot ~$4,135. Rebound from a two-month low
High-yield spread
Current325 bp
Previous: 316 bp · observed Oct 13, 2026
Automatic · Observed Oct 14, 2026 · Checked Oct 15, 2026, 11:00 PM UTC · Included in tally
Source: FRED: US high-yield option-adjusted spread (basis points) · Open source URL https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=BAMLH0A0HYM2&cosd=2024-10-01
Breadth
MissingNo reading
Manual · Observed date unavailable · Checked Not yet checked · Excluded from tally
Source: No confirmed source reading
Flows
Foreign official Treasury flows (TIC)
StaleOfficial buying
Manual · Observed Sep 16, 2026 · Checked Not yet checked · Excluded from tally
Source: Treasury TIC release Sep 16 (July data): foreign official net purchases of long-term Treasuries +$25.5bn; net official flows +$10.2bn. August data due Oct 16
Treasury auction demand
StaleClean
Previous: Mixed tails · observed Sep 23, 2026
Manual · Observed Oct 8, 2026 · Checked Not yet checked · Excluded from tally
Source: $22bn 30y sold at 5.618%, in line with when-issued (no tail), bid-to-cover 2.54 vs ~2.41 average. 10y on Oct 7 stopped through. 3y result not confirmed